The Criminal Justice Analysis Center released a report in March detailing trends in firearm violence across rural, urban, and suburban communities in North Carolina. The findings are expected to help state and local leaders shape efforts to reduce firearm-related injuries and deaths.
The analysis is important because it provides a clearer understanding of how, when, and where firearm violence occurs throughout the state. Caroline Farmer, executive director of the Governor’s Crime Commission, said, “We now have a clearer picture of when, where and how firearm violence is occurring across North Carolina. These findings inform state initiatives for grant funding, targeted prevention strategies and policies that address the growing firearm violence in rural areas across our state.”
Drawing from five years of recent data, the report examines trends such as firearm homicide rates peaking statewide in 2021 before declining by 29% through June 2025. Nonfatal shootings showed similar patterns. Firearm suicide remains more common than homicide by firearms, with older adults in rural counties most affected.
The study found that young adults aged 20 to 24 face the highest rates of interpersonal firearm violence; increased risk was also noted among those aged 15 to 19 and from 25 to 29. Black non-Hispanic residents experience the highest rates of interpersonal gun violence statewide—especially those living in rural areas—while American Indian and Alaska Native non-Hispanic residents also face high victimization risks. Hispanic residents have higher risk levels particularly within urban counties.
Between 2020 and 2024, rural counties reported the highest levels of all types of gun-related harm including homicide, suicide, nonfatal shootings and unintentional deaths involving firearms. Urban counties matched rural areas for total homicides over five years but had higher rates for other types of gun crime while reporting lower suicide rates involving firearms. Suburban counties saw the lowest levels overall for interpersonal gun violence but maintained the second-highest rate for suicides involving guns after rural regions.
According to information provided about its role, the Criminal Justice Analysis Center is part of the Governor’s Crime Commission and brings together data from various agencies to inform public discussion as well as policy development among government officials and criminal justice partners.
